Is The Chess (Twitch) Boom Over? Looking at Data From Chess.com - Part II

I posted my last newsletter on r/chess and it got a fair share of views (125.000+). It also led to some discussions about whether I was Lichess-biased.

Here is one view:

"I think if you’re inside the chess social-media bubble with its pretty extreme lichess bias, it’s easy to assume that lichess is online chess, or close enough to be a sufficient representation of the state of online chess, and that Chess.com is only used by titled players who get paid for it, and by newcomers who haven’t yet been taught any better.

Outside of that social-media bubble, though — and new players from the 2020 chess boom all came from outside that bubble — online chess is more or less synonymous with Chess.com, and lichess is more likely to be an “oh, yeah, I heard someone mention that”. So I’d expect that whatever bump lichess got was dwarfed by the bump Chess.com got, and that the post-boom decline is likely to be the same way.”¹

I have decided to take a step out of the chess social-media bubble I'm in and look at the chess site for the common man — Chess.com.

Here I noticed that Chess.com for a good period of time shared a monthly article called ‘Month in Review’ featuring key numbers about fair play on the site. I collected these numbers to see if they can tell us something about the chess boom and the possible decline.

I then constructed a diagram with the number of games submitted for review for fair play on Chess.com (Green) and accounts closed for fair play violations (Black). The Queen’s Gambit aired in October 2020.

The number peaked in March 2021, a month after the chess Twitch peak. It is clear that Queen’s Gambit led to a lot of game reviews and closed accounts. From the opening month in October to the peak in March there was a 244% increase in closed accounts due to fair play violations on Chess.com.

After March 2021 the numbers start to decline. Sadly Chess.com experienced a database issue in August of 2020 and could no longer report the number of games reviewed for fair play.²

Chess.com month in review from July/August 2021

I got in touch with the Chess.com staff and they helped with some of the missing numbers, and more importantly, data about the number of games played and monthly active users during the Queen’s Gambit boom.

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The peak month on Chess.com was March 2021 with 705 million games played and almost 19 million active users! That is a massive 128% increase from October 2020 when the Queen’s Gambit craze started.

After the March madness in 2021 till April 2022, there has been a 21% drop in the number of games on Chess.com. The Twitch chess boom saw a 76% fall in viewership from the top.

In my opinion, it is actually a positive sign that so many people are still playing chess online taking into account the easing of the covid-regulations worldwide and the Queen’s Gambit becoming a memory (not the opening).

Overall, after looking at all these numbers it seems like the new chess players are still here, but chess viewing patterns are changing.

Finally, I just want to share some reactions to the first post on Twitter. The Chess Pit Podcast also had a good discussion about the subject:

JJ, chess teacher and amateur feelings-haver @chessfeels

i don't really know what my thoughts are on the 'chess boom is over' saga but all i can say is that i've definitely started working with several adults who got into chess during the pandemic and many of whom are becoming v strong players.

Anish Giri @anishgiri

Oh no, people are no longer stuck at home forced to watch our boring chess streams.

MrDodgy (CEO of Chefable) @ChessProblem

https://t.co/7b2OIJ5yLG

Preston Chess Club @PrestonChess

@saychess1 @lichess @GothamChess We've been very fortunate to gain some much needed new regular club members. They have mostly started participating since lock down restrictions have lapsed. The drop off is more likely for people watching chess streams regularly due to less free time now the world has reopened.

Aakaash.eth @AakaashMeduri

@saychess1 @lichess @GothamChess The largest streamers heavily skew these average viewership metrics. I hypothesize the chess boom is more over for them (mainly big chesscom partners), while chess channels outside the top n maintain around the same viewership numbers per stream... which seems pretty healthy 🙂

Aakaash.eth @AakaashMeduri

@saychess1 @lichess @GothamChess It's largely a broken system because chesscom leverages "embedded viewers" which heavily inflates the viewer counts on Twitch. Most of those viewers aren't actually there. The true KPI should be REAL viewers. It's more difficult to quantify but is actually factual.

The Chess Pit Podcast @chesspitpod

Episode 136 is here! This week we discuss postcodes, London clay, and wonder whether the chess Twitch boom really is diminishing. Our silly questions also make a triumphant return! To be enjoyed in the bath, on your commute, or while falling asleep.

podcasts.apple.com‎The Chess Pit: Maybe People Are Burning Out on Apple Podcasts‎Show The Chess Pit, Ep Maybe People Are Burning Out - 12 May 2022

The next newsletter will include the next game in the Capablanca series on ‘My Chess Career’. And I will launch something new… Stay tuned!

Martin B. Justesen (Say Chess) @saychess1

Should I add some voice to the newsletter? Maybe some blindfold puzzles?

/Martin

1. https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/ulzp56/is_the_twitch_chess_boom_over_i_have_looked_at/

2. https://www.chess.com/article/view/chesscom-month-in-review-july-august-2021